Why the 2024 election could have 'robust' voter turnout for Biden vs. Trump

Seventy-one percent of Americans say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the upcoming presidential election, according to the latest Gallup poll.

“Voter turnout could be robust this year,” according to the report released on Monday. The number of registered voters who went to the polls in 2008 and 2020—when considering the election at this stage mirrored today’s—was the highest since 1968.

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The party divide

Voters affiliated with one major party or the other are especially likely to have given the election more thought than independents.

84% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans reported thinking “quite a lot” about the upcoming election, though Gallup says that that 6% difference between parties isn’t statistically significant.

On the other hand, only 61% of independents reported thinking “quite a lot” about the election.

Democrats have not been this focused on an election since at least 2000. For Republicans, this year’s figures are on par with those from 2020, which was also the highest in at least that long.

This year’s poll shows that older age brackets are progressively more likely to have been paying close attention to the election. 49% of 18-to 29-year-olds gave the election “quite a lot” of thought, while 82% of those over 65 said the same. Higher household income and education level also correlate with higher voter engagement.

The report concluded, “It remains to be seen whether voters will ultimately be as motivated to vote this year as they were in 2020, when more voters cast ballots than in any other election in the 21st century.”