Trump is guilty. It won't matter at all this election.
Donald Trump is now a convicted felon. I just don't think that will matter to voters and how they see him.
Ingrid JacquesPresident Joe Biden and the Democrats have gotten their wish and can now label former President Donald Trump as a convicted felon.
A New York jury on Thursday found Trump guilty on all 34 counts in the case involving hush money payments to a porn star and falsification of business records.
While this is going to make for some salacious headlines and nonstop cable news fodder, don’t count on it impacting the 2024 presidential election.
At least, that’s my prediction.
Those who hated Trump are now only going to have more reason to despise him. Those who love him will see this as a reason to rally around him more.
Now, don’t get me wrong. This is bad for the country to have a former president – and one who’s the likely GOP nominee – convicted of a felony for the first time.
All the hoopla over the conviction, however, won’t change the fact that this case has widely been seen as the weakest of the four criminal cases against Trump. And Trump will certainly appeal.
He will also continue playing up how he’s been politically persecuted by opponents.
Trump will win in 2024:Acquitted or convicted, he wins no matter what
Most say a Trump conviction won't sway their vote
Republican political consultant Dennis Lennox recently told me most voters have already made up their minds.
“Other than what the Trump foes see as the historic symbolism of a conviction, it’s hard to see it making any real difference given everything else thrown at Trump since 2016,” Lennox said.
Those who haven’t made up their minds yet are likely not planning to vote at all or will check the box for a third-party candidate.
A PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll released just ahead of the Trump verdict found that 67% of voters said a guilty verdict wouldn’t affect whom they plan to vote for in November.
And 25% of Republicans said they would be even more likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty.
Democrats, campaign on Trump's verdict:Trump, guilty on all counts, carries a new label into 2024 election – convicted felon
Expect Trump to return to campaign trail even more fired up
Now that Trump has been found guilty, the next step is sentencing, which Judge Juan Merchan has set for July 11 – just days ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Matthew Schneider, a former Michigan U.S. attorney appointed by Trump, doesn’t anticipate the guilty verdict will change much about how Trump campaigns on the criminal prosecution.
“His position was, this is an unfair prosecution, and after it’ll just be adding a line to that,” Schneider said. “It will be, this is an unfair prosecution and we’re appealing.”
In the meantime, Trump is likely to continue campaigning as he has been in between court appearances.
The reality is most Americans don't care about Trump's courtroom drama. They care about how government policies are impacting their daily lives. Expect them to vote on that come November ‒ not the results of this trial in New York.
Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on X, formerly Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques.