Trump leads Biden in 5 key swing states as voters worry about economy, Israel-Hamas war: Poll

WASHINGTON — Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five key swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election, according to a new poll.

The survey, released Monday by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer, found Biden trailing Trump among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup by seven points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia, seven points in Michigan, 12 points in Nevada and three points in Pennsylvania.

Biden is leading Trump by two points in Wisconsin, however.

Among voters who say they're likely to cast a ballot in the fall, the results are similar. Trump is leading Biden in five of the six key swing states, except Michigan, where Biden leads him by one point.

The economy remains one of the top issues for voters in these pivotal states heading into the 2024 contest. Over 50% of survey respondents in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania rate current economic conditions as poor. 

And as pro-Palestinian protests spread across college campuses from coast to coast, young voters in particular have been critical of Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war and the massive humanitarian toll in Gaza. The polls found that only 28% of respondents ages 18 to 29 trust Biden to handle the broader Israel-Palestinian conflict, while 52% trust Trump. 

Twenty percent of respondents in that age group said they don’t know or refused to answer.

The surveys, conducted among more than 4,000 registered voters between April 28 and May 9 , have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. Each state poll has a margin of error ranging from plus or minus 3.6 percentage points to plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. 

Other polls have also found Trump leading Biden in key swing states. For example, an Emerson College/The Hill poll, conducted between April 25 and April 29, found Trump leading Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.